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New Energy vehicle policy to benefit the central release

On November 7, the new energy vehicle sector continued to receive good news: in terms of industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said it was leading the preparation of the new energy vehicle development plan for 2021-2035 (referred to as the plan), which is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions.For the company's part, tesla released photos of its chinese-made Model 3 for the first time on its official weibo account.Toyota motor corporation and byd have signed a joint venture agreement to establish a pure electric vehicle research and development company. The new company will be formally established in China in 2020, with Toyota and byd contributing 50% each.Industry insiders said that based on the energy policy, scientific and technological progress, industrialization process of research, long-term optimistic about the development prospects of new energy vehicle industry.

Good news keeps coming.

Recently, there has been a lot of good news from tesla's factory in Shanghai.On November 7, tesla released the first photos of the Model 3 made in China through its official weibo account, which directly stems from the fact that the Shanghai gigafactory went into trial production "beyond expectations".According to other media reports, the Model 3 manufactured by tesla in Shanghai will be officially unveiled on November 11, and domestic Model 3 is expected to start small-scale delivery at the end of this year and large-scale delivery in the first quarter of next year.

On the same day, the State Council issued the opinions on further utilizing foreign capital.All regions should ensure that new-energy vehicles produced by domestic and foreign auto manufacturers enjoy equal market access, the guideline said.We will revise the management method for the parallel management of the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle enterprises and the points of new energy vehicles, and allow the transfer of points between foreign vehicle enterprises with foreign investment in China after consensus is reached between foreign and Chinese joint venture partners.

"The production schedule of tesla's Shanghai factory exceeded expectations.""Based on the judgment of the competitiveness of the Model 3, the analysis of the competitive pattern of domestic new energy vehicles, and the elasticity measurement of listed companies in the domestic industrial chain, it is expected that the production and sales of the Shanghai factory and the elasticity of the domestic supply chain will exceed the market expectations in the next two years," industrial securities said in the research paper.

At the same time, byd and Toyota to "sugar".On Nov. 7, byd announced that Toyota motor corp. and byd signed a joint venture agreement to establish a research and development company for pure electric vehicles.The new company will be formally established in China in 2020, with Toyota and byd contributing 50 per cent each.

The new company will carry out the design, research and development of pure electric vehicles and the platforms and parts used in the vehicles.The company will be formed by personnel from both parties involved in the relevant business.

Byd said the joint venture will design and develop products using byd's existing electric-platform technology and electric-component supply, while Toyota will control quality and safety control standards.The pure electric vehicles designed and developed by the joint venture company use the Toyota brand.It is worth noting that, different from the previous cooperation model between Toyota and faw and gac, Toyota will carry out a "technology-equivalent" vehicle development cooperation with byd to jointly develop pure electric vehicles and power batteries.

Post-subsidy cooling.

Since 2009, the state began to strongly support the promotion and application of new energy vehicles.With the joint efforts of all parties, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have grown rapidly.In 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.256 million, up 59.9 percent and 61.7 percent, respectively, year-on-year.The technology level of new energy vehicles and key components has been significantly improved, and the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry has been significantly improved. The initial stage has entered the growth stage, the social recognition of the products has been significantly improved, the industrial scale effect has emerged, and the cost of power batteries and vehicles has been significantly reduced.

Although new energy vehicles have entered the post-subsidy era, the market sales are still closely linked to the national subsidy policy.On June 26, 2019, the new policy on subsidies for new energy vehicles, which has been described as the largest scale of decline in history, came into effect: the national subsidy standard was reduced by about 50%, while local subsidies were withdrawn directly, and the decline rate of subsidies in 2019 was close to 70%.

Therefore, before July, new energy vehicle sales did go out of a wave of market.According to the China association of automobile manufacturers (CAAC), sales of new-energy vehicles in the first six months of this year totaled 412,000 units, up 111.5 percent year-on-year.

Into the second half of the year, the new energy vehicle market quickly cooled, monthly sales have appeared "three consecutive decline".The sales volume of new energy vehicles in July and August was 80,000 and 85,000 respectively, down 4.7% and 15.8% year-on-year. The sales volume in September was 80,000, with a year-on-year decline of 34.2%.

Cui dongshu, secretary-general of the association, believes that the subsidies at the end of June brought a sharp rise in the cost of sales, production and marketing links are difficult to quickly cope with such a cost change.

Take byd as an example, the sales volume of its new energy vehicles began to decline from July, with the sales volume from July to October being 16,567, 16,719, 13,681 and 12,567, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 11.84%, 23.44%, 50.97% and 54.58%, respectively.In its third quarterly report, byd forecast that the annual net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2019 would be 1.584 billion yuan to 1.774 billion yuan, down 36.19% year-on-year to 43.03%.

The industry entered a growth period

Luo junjie, deputy director general of the equipment industry department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the China automotive industry development BBS held during the second China international import expo on Nov. 7 that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is leading the preparation of the development plan for new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2035, which is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions.Facing the development of new energy vehicles in 2035, the plan focuses on highlighting the "four modernizations", namely electrification, intelligence, network connection and sharing.

Affected by this news, the new energy vehicle sector was active, dongxu optoelectronics, gaolan shares, blue sky technology rose more than 5%, houpu shares, dawn shares, power source, dongmu shares rose more than 4%.

Dongxing securities auto industry analysts said, looking forward to the fourth quarter, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles year-on-year decline risk can not be completely ruled out;At the same time, the industry chain will further reduce the dependence on subsidies, market reshuffle will be further accelerated.Based on the study of energy policy, scientific and technological progress and industrialization process, we are optimistic about the development prospect of new energy automobile industry in the long term.

Auto industry analysts of China merchants securities believe that in recent years, traditional big car enterprises overseas have started strategic investment in the field of new energy vehicles. According to the pushing time of important models/platforms, it is expected that a new round of rapid growth will start from 2020 to 2021.Chinese battery material enterprises have been globally competitive in the development of global digital batteries, and in the past five years, some competitive power battery enterprises have been gradually cultivated in the great development of China's new energy automobile industry.Long-term optimistic about the ability to cut into the mainstream supply system overseas midstream companies.





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